VEHICLE ATTACKSIf a vehicle attack is directed at a single individual, and all causalities are that of the intended victim and
members of his/her team, then there is no question that those casualties are put into the category of "vehicle attacks". But many times
the number of casualties caused by a vehicle attack may not be that clear. If a car bomb goes off in the parking lot of a crowded shopping center causing multiple casualties, those victims are not, in the strict sense of the word, victims of a vehicle attack. Protecting against a car bomb designed to kill a multitude of people is different than
protecting an individual driving to and from work. If the statistics from both of these scenarios are mixed, it can create confusion.
PHASE ONE OF THE SELECTION PROCESS
The selection process is a series of steps taken by the terrorists to develop a list of potential targets. The criteria the terrorists use to select targets in this initial phase varies. In some countries being a foreigner is enough to get included into this phase. In others, they single out the military or the business
community. How do you know if you have been selected in the first phase? You don't know! And there is little that can be done to avoid this phase of the operation. The simple fact that a company is doing business in a high risk environment is enough to make it a candidate for the selec-
tion process. It's not a comforting thought for a company to imagine there are terrorists watching THEIR employees. If a company is WORKING in a part of the world where there are terrorist problems, the
company should consider itself as always being in phase one of the selection process. In that type of situation it would be naive and dangerous to assume that the company and its managers are not being watched by the terrorists. Many times the solution to the first phase is the standard "keep a low profile." The low profile method of protection is often considered to be the cure for this phase
of the selection process. If keeping a low profile is the only precaution the company
takes, it may be creating a problem. The company is putting a lot of faith in maintaining a low profile. Keeping a low profile is a good idea, strongly recommended, and every one should do it; but it should not be the only thing done. Some companies can maintain a
low profile and still run a business. For others that may not be possible. The problem is that there is no way of
knowing if keeping a low profile works. If it doesn't work there is no protection against any of the other
phases of the selection process and the company get to go right to the top of the terrorists' selection list. Terrorists will always take
the path of least resistance. If the first phase of the selection process is ignored, the company becomes the path of least resistance.
PHASE TWO OF THE SELECTION PROCESS
Now that the terrorists have selected a group of targets, they move on to the second phase. They will carefully run the potential victims through a well designed and thorough
selection process. They will, through meticulous surveillance, gather information about the lifestyle of all the targets. The purpose of the surveillance is to gather all the information
and intelligence necessary to successfully complete the operation.
This is another part of the selection process that cannot be avoided. This is the most important stage of the process. It
is the place in the process where they are about to make the decision to take or leave the potential targets name on/off
the list. If they are looking at eight people you can rest assured that one of those people will stick out as a person that is not security conscious and is much easier to attack than every one else. If they have made the decision to get a group of individuals who are security conscious, it comes down to a test of "who has the weakest security". The security
with the most weakness loses. This can place an incredible burden on a security department. If company A is driving in an
armored car with bodyguards, and company B is in the same business as company A, it is almost a necessity that company B supply the same protection for their executives. It can get to be an never-ending battle.
The best way to get off the terrorists' list is to make the target hard to get. This is called "hardening the target", and
most security people
have run into the argument of why harden the target if nothing has happened. It's logic that is hard to comprehend, especially coming from an executive. If the accounting department tells an executive he should plan for
a recession, hopefully the executive will not say "wait until it happens then we'll do something". If you don't harden the target you make yourself the path of least resistance. Hardening the target is planning for the worst and hoping it never happens.
PHASE THREE OF THE SELECTION PROCESS
Once they have selected a group of targets and conducted the surveillance on them, they initiate the next phase, making
a decision on who the victim will be. Terrorists will make a risk versus success assessment. If they feel one target is
easier than another, they will focus their efforts on the person that offers the least risk and the highest possible success rate. This stage is a good argument against the asinine comment "if they want me
they're going to get me, so why have any protection or take any precautions." That is a self- fulfilling prophecy. The issue is that in many cases they don't
want that particular person, it is just that that person happens to make himself easy to get. Terrorists must rely on the victim's complete unawareness of what's going on. They will narrow the group down to a chosen few.
PHASE FOUR OF THE SELECTION PROCESS-THE FINAL CUT
They will conduct more surveillance. It may take
weeks-possibly months-to gather all the information. The victim's movements will be analyzed and patterns of habit established. The most important information they produce from the surveillance is the daily time schedule of the target. They will establish this time schedule by carefully monitoring the
daily routine of the victim. This time schedule will accurately outline the target's every move during the daily routine.
One of the first and obvious things they will document is the
vehicle, its make, color, plate number, etc. It is not a time when one wants a vehicle that stands out. Depending on the particular environment and threat level, one may want a vehicle that blends with the environment and other vehicles that are a natural part of it. One may want to lower one's visibility. They will also document what time the victim leaves for work, what route he drives to work, where he goes
for lunch, what time he goes for lunch, and where he goes for leisure time activity. They will carefully examine the
victim's routine, looking for a pattern. Does the victim always leave for work at the same time? Does he always play
tennis at the same time? Does he drive himself? Have a bodyguard? Is anyone armed? How so? They will know the victim's routine better than he does himself. They know the key to the success of their attack is that the victim must be totally unaware he
is the target. The victim must be "taken by surprise". They will do another risk analysis of the
victim's security.
Phase one, the selection of many prominent targets, everyone working in a high risk environment is on the list. Surveillance will eliminate the hard to get, this should be your people. The following phases will use more surveillance
on the selected targets until they eliminate all and select the weakest.
Case Study Aldo Moro
Aldo Moro is classic case. It
is very old but a classic learning tool. The kidnapping of the highly respected elder states- man of Italian politics, Aldo Moro, shocked the world. It would have been similar to the kidnapping of ex-Presidents
Ford, Nixon, Carter or Reagan. The entire country of Italy came to a standstill. Shortly after 9:00 a.m., having stopped
at a nearby church for communion, Moro was en route to Parliament in his dark blue Fiat 130. He went to the same
church, at the same time every morning.
He established a pattern that was easy to figure out. Every morning you could count on Aldo Moro being in the same place at the same time. In the Fiat were also the chauffeur and a bodyguard.
Three security guards followed in a white Alfa Romeo. As the cars moved through a fashionable hotel district and approached an intersection, a car bearing diplomatic license plates pulled ahead of the Fiat and stopped suddenly at the intersection. Moro's chauffeur applied his brakes so abruptly that
the follow-up car hit Moro's Fiat.
The driver and passenger from the blocking car got out as if to check whether there had been any damages. Approaching Moro's car from both sides, they pulled out pistols and shot the driver and security guard in the front seat of Moro's car, killing them instantly.
Prior to this, four men dressed in Alitalia airline uniforms had been standing at the intersection as though waiting for a bus. As the action commenced, they crossed over to the cars, pulling
out automatic weapons from their flight bags.
They fired at the security officers in the follow-up car, killing two of them instantly. The third security officer rolled out
of the car onto the street and was able to get three shots off before he was neutralized by a fatal shot from a sniper on a nearby roof.
The obvious planning and attention to detail in this kidnapping was remarkable even when compared to the precision tactics of other kidnapping.
The lesson learned, Moro was not the initial target. The man the Red Brigade wanted to get was driving in an armored
car, his body-guards followed him in another armored car. He changed his routes all the time. His bodyguards were well armed. During the selection process for the final target the terrorists decided that the original target was too hard to get and would be a costly attack. They went to the weaker target - Moro.
Exxon
On April 29 1992 the president of Exxon International Sidney Reso left his for his usual trip to work. He made the
decision to drive himself to work and not to have a driver pick him up for his daily morning trip to work. He stopped
his car at the end of his 250 foot driveway to retrieve the newspaper. When he got out a white van pulled in front of his car. A man with a ski mask covering his face step in front of him and forced him into the van. According to the kid-
napper once in the van Mr. Reso was accidentally shot in the arm.
The kidnappers took him to a public storage area, where they had rented a garage in February. They had made a box
made with holes in it for Mr. Reso to breath. The box was six feet four inches long, three feet high and three and a half
feet wide. The top opened with hinges. Reso's eyes and mouth where covered with tape. They put a sleeping bag and blankets in the box to keep him comfortable. They visited him twice a
day giving him vitamins, and having him make recorded messages. He died five days later. Once he was dead they took the body to a seclude area of New Jersey and buried him. His death was not discover until June of 1992 when the kidnappers where apprehended and one of them
broke down and confessed to the kidnappers.
The kidnaper where Mr. and Mrs Arthur Seal. Arthur Seal is an ex Exxon employee, and ex police office who worked in
the security department. He left the company in 1987
and moved to another state and started a business that soon went broke. he left that state owing a considerable amount of money, close to $ 1,000,000 million dollars. He conceived the
plan to kidnap an Exxon executive in order to pay off his huge debts. He followed a number of Exxon executives until he decided on Reso. He picked Reso because he thought Reso would be easier to get than the other executives. He made
this decision after reviewing the routine of many of the other executive routine. Although Seale is not the classic terrorist
the kidnapping followed the classic guide lines.
They decided to kidnap an Exxon executive in December of 91. They decided it would be a quick way to get out of debt. They researched the homes and routines of several Exxon executives, and decided that to pick the house that offered the most seclusion. That house was Sidney Reso's home. They watched the house for
the next four months. In February
they rented a storage facility where they hope to keep Mr. Reso until they got their money. They actually thought that they would kidnap Mr. Reso in the middle of the week and have the money by the week end. Several times they where ready to kidnap Mr. Reso but where thwarted by his change in schedule.
Although the kidnappers were not "terrorist" they used the same procedures for selecting a target. This could very well
be due to the background of the kidnapper. Seal in his role of security at Exxon at one time or another was involved in
the protection of executives. I am sure he gained some insight on how to conduct a surveillance and kidnapping during
his days as an executive protection person. The first message sent to Exxon from Seal said that the kidnappers where
from the Fernando Pereira Brigade Warriors, Warriors of the Rainbow. Fernando Pereira was the Greenpeace activist
killed in 1985 when French agents sank the Greenpeace ship Rainbow Warrior. Seale did his home work.